Simulated Betslip

Match

Favorite Underdog —

Derived λs

λ_fav and λ_und are inverted from the two Pricing Inputs on the board: AH ±0.5 and FT O/U 2.5. Edit those prices directly to drive the simulator; the rest of the board is model-priced from the inverted λs.

λ Favorite

—

λ Underdog

—

Fav · H1

—

Fav · H2

—

Und · H1

—

Und · H2

—

H1 share 45% H1 · 55% H2

Fraction of each team's expected goals in the 1st half. Empirical soccer ≈ 0.45.

Run

Selected — N simulations

Stake per match is drawn from a normal distribution centered on the midpoint of [min, max], truncated to the bounds. Book PnL = −Σ(bettor payouts).

Min stake Max stake

Odds Board Pricing Inputs (AH, O/U 2.5) are editable; the rest is model-priced

Results

Score frequency

Score	Share	Count

Sample matches

#	H1	H2	FT

Match

Derived λs clamped

Run

Odds Board Pricing Inputs (AH, O/U 2.5) are editable; the rest is model-priced

Results

Score frequency FT H1 H2

Sample matches

Derived λs

Score frequency